Text COM:1932544 (90 lines)

From: Jivan Mukta (das) RVSD (Boston, MA - USA)

Date: 13-Dec-98 16:09

To: Apocalypse 1999? (Are you ready?) [274]

Subject: NATIONS WORKING TO AVERT ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR

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This article was published in the Boston Globe on Saturday, December 12.

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Y2K BUG WORRIES US, RUSSIA

NATIONS WORKING TO AVERT ACCIDENTAL NUCLEAR WAR

By Colum Lynch

Globe Correspondent

UNITED NATIONS - Concerned that the year 2000 computer bug might

accidentally set off a nuclear war, the United States and Russia are

hammering out an agreement to station experts in each other's nuclear

command centers next year to prevent miscalculations that could kill

millions of people, according to senior US officials.

The Clinton administration is seeking to allay Russian concerns that a

potential breakdown of its computer system caused by the bug would be

misinterpreted by Moscow as an American attack on its computer defense

network. Russian military doctrine anticipates that a nuclear strike against

Moscow would be preceded by an attack on its military information systems.

"If all the radar screens go blank, will they think we did it and decide to

launch a nuclear strike?" asked Senator Robert F. Bennet, a Utah Republican

who heads the congressional task force that deals with year 2000 problems.

US military officials met with their Russian counterparts in New York

yesterday to reach an agreement. William Curtis, the director of the

Pentagon's year 2000 compliance office, said in an interview yesterday that

America would probably have its experts in place in Moscow by the middle of

1999. He added that the United States is also in discussions with China,

which expressed concerns like those of the Russians.

"We need to make sure there is no chance someone will be blindsided if the

radar screens of any country using nuclear weapons go blank," said Curtis.

"That is a cause for panic. You don't know whether it's an attack on your

system."

Curtis said the Pentagon is also worried that the 2000 bug will wreak havoc

on the capacity of foreign governments to provide essential services,

threatening everything from urban grids to water purification and health

care systems.

He said government officials are also concerned that such a scenario would

place enormous demands on the US military to conduct humanitarian emergency

response operations abroad. Cutis said the Clinton administration sought to

persuade other countries at a major UN conference on year 2000 compliance

yesterday to intensify efforts to prepare their computer systems.

"We know there will be some nasty surprises," Curtis said. "But we have to

walk a tightrope between provoking panic and keeping people from going to

sleep at the wheel."

Increasingly alarmed by the prospects of so-called cyber-warfare against its

military defenses, Russia has proposed that the United Nations create an

international treaty controlling "information warfare."

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov wrote to UN Secretary General Kofi

Annan on Sept. 23 warning that dangers posed by information warfare "may be

comparable to that of weapons of mass destruction."

"We cannot permit the emergence of a fundamentally new area of international

confrontation, which may lead to an escalation of the arms race based on the

latest development of the scientific and technological revolution," he

added.

Russian fears have been fueled in part by an October report from the Joint

Chiefs of Staff stating that American forces will use "information

operations to support our national military strategy."

"The Russians fear that their critical defense systems are vulnerable to

hacking by the United States and other countries," said Roger C. Molander, a

specialist on cyber-warfare at the Rand Corp.

American sources say Russia raised the issue of cyber-warfare with Vice

President Al Gore and President Clinton during their latest visits to

Moscow. The issue has also been raised in closed-door congressional

briefings by the CIA, Bennett said. On Nov. 2, the Clinton administration

agreed to begin debate in the UN General Assembly next year on "information

security."

Although Curtis insisted that there is no chance a glitch in the computer

network that controls the more than 2,000 US nuclear missiles could

accidentally launch a missile, analysts say there is considerable

uncertainty about what will happen on Jan. 1, 2000.

"The US system is supposed to be year 2000 compliant by the year 2000, but

we've had people tell us it won't be compliant until the year 2034," said

Tanya Padberg, an analyst at the British and American Information Center.

"If that is the case, what does that say about the Russian system?"

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